AAPL at $270 Post-Q4 (and a $283 AH high): ”Fed-Priced, Not AI-Priced.” A blow-off top disguised as a triumph.

Firstly, a statement:

After 25 years, I have no interest in AAPL any longer — until the company delivers something other than smoke, mirrors, and financial engineering. I love the company, and its products, but am acutely disappointed by its inability to ship anything successful - Apple Silicon aside - for five years, and worse still, just going into full on denial instead of owning it.

I made most of this clear a week ago:

AAPL takes out its ATH $263. Would I be a seller here (again)? Yes. Too far, too fast, no clarity.

Markets are at a precipice of the traditional strong end of year, but has that already been spent in the enormous run-up since the April? Four charts, one long-form commentary: I believe in booking gains, pocketing cash, and being able to buy dips. “You don’t have to sell out, just raise some cash.”

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

And following a reader’s commen,t I wrote the following before Apple’s Q4 earnings I broadly and deeply made my thoughts clear, echoing what I’d previously written, that Apple’s next big product leap needed to be “Culture” not “Hardware,“ which wasn’t an op-ed piece but an in-context article about what and where I saw Apple as having taken unforgivable mis-steps in recent years:

From FAANG to MANGO: Apple’s Chance to Think Different Again: Its Next Big Move to $400 Isn’t based on Hardware, But Culture.

Apple’s ATH of $263 isn’t just a milestone but an epiphany. After a decade of iteration, the company’s next act won’t be defined by chips or devices, but the culture it chooses to rebuild. FAANG was about products; MANGO? Cognition. Can Apple still “Think Different,” and fix its stifling culture?

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

Recap: Here’s what I wrote earlier in the week, prior to Apples Q4 “blowout” that wasn’t.

“BoA’s 5-Year Fairytale — and Why AAPL at $269 Isn’t ‘AI-Priced,’ It’s Fed-Priced.” - Tommo_UK 25th October 2025

I’ve sat on the sidelines watching this rah-rah with bemused interest, as every analyst suddenly “sees the light” where they were all trashing AAPL at $190. 

Suddenly BoA does a 5-year forecast based on spurious products Gurman has speculated on, and explains all the assumptions are based on Apple succeeding in its 15-year late saga of “getting AI right, in the end.”

Sure, OK, that’s what my own prediction of $260 by January 2025 which I made in July 2024 was based on (and hit), and what I’ve been basing my $400 by Q4 2027 on.

But Apple have to show they can execute first, and they haven’t, no matter the rumour of what we think we will hear in the call.

Sure, Apple could still shift its culture up several gears, and reclaim their lost AI crown and then all these products - many of which have languished (I know for a fact) for several years due to the lack of AI - could be introduced. But to base a current investment thesis of that magnitude on a 5 year “if but and maybe and dependent on AI” is just .. nonsense IMO. That’s not a research note.

That’s doing the financial equivalent of distributing Mark Gurman rumours about what phone Apple might launch in 2028, or a “robotic HomePod” or whatever.

All possible, and any intern at BoA can ask Perplexity to come up with a series of use cases for AI and how they would fit into a 5-year product roadmap for Apple and extrapolating past patterns apply them to future outcomes and come up with a financial model (it really is that easy to make this stuff up) and ask Sora to create pretty charts, but considering we don’t know what’s happening in 5 weeks let alone 5 months, or 5 years, I think it’s a bit rich.

The truth is this: the entire market hinges on NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META GOOG etc…. And the only way to drag the market up when these stocks represent almost half the S&P (ok I’m being hyperbolic but they ARE the market in essence), is to talk them ALL up, and AAPL is the laggard.

So they’re talking up AAPL, focussing solely on the iP17 numbers and comparables against last year which was a total flop, and suddenly everything’s great.

At a PE of 40+

It just doesn’t make any sense, it’s premature IMO and reckless, but given the all-in nature of market sentiment right now, a buy the dip mentality, and an AI is everything - but it doesn’t apply to Apple, uniquely, because they’re different (is this Alice in Wonderland or what) - then I couldn’t possibly stay in., even if I was in, unless I was a long term holder and a Dividends Queen which doesn’t make it worth my while ever selling, except for some cash.

There is a clear case of FAANG stocks being on a roller coaster moment, with the train cheering as it climbs to the top, only to be about to go down again, and the risk for me would be too great. I cannot see an earnings driver warranting this nosebleed valuation for AAPL

It is not a high growth stock any more, and it has to prove it can ship anything but a competent iPhone and OS yet, with all hopes seemingly pinned on not even 2026 - but increasingly at 2027 and even 2028.

I wish everyone well on this wild ride, but if I look back, technically, I’ve been out of the market and missed a 5% rise in my position in a year by having my assets in cash since 2024’s highs, and then this years pre-collapse highs when I sold out in March - and the peace of mind to jump in and out of other trading tools as I saw fit - without being exposed to geopolitical risk and a company (Apple) whose management I think are appalling and who seem - unless they have corrected this along the lines I wrote about it “Apple’s next product needs to be CULTURE not HARDWARE,” just isn’t in a position to fulfil the promises on the cheques it has written to live up to market expectations.

If you look at AAPl relatively speaking, it’a still a total laggard, but obviously a rising vapour chamber lifts all boats, and the market is on fire.

AAPL’s participation is a vital component of that, so of course, AAPL must be driven higher or risk the S&P closing out the year at nose bleed levels with fund managers all wanting to be seen to be the best performing, in the best year (thanks to the April dive) in recent memory.

Fund managers are now so ahead of themselves and their targets, they can afford to lose, and still be ahead of this rally loses steam, so the general unwritten consensus is, let’s drive this as high as we can into year-end and close the year with “record performance,” and well, 2026 is just another year, worry about that next year.

Which is when I expect talk of AI bubbles in infrastructure spending turning out to be self-cannibalising to dominate at some point.

Me? I have a big bet on the VIX now. I’d rather sit on a leveraged position assuming there may be a 15-25% dip which on 20:1 would pocket me a fortune, than stay involved in a stock whose underlying company I can’t yet have any faith in.

I’m hoping Tim & Co prove me wrong:

There’s a real hysteria about the market and AAPL right now, without me wasting my tine writing about the future when all people really want to hear is whether there’s been another analyst upgrade what the rationale is.

Point in fact: considering BoA recognise the absurdity of the current price based on iPhone numbers and GMs alone, knowing the comparables are a one off, and the boost financial services and insurance services are making to GMs, they’re taking the “adult” view of looking out 5 years to justify their outlook.

I remember when Gene Munster back in 2023 built in estimates for the fabled iCar and iGoggles into his spreadsheet and said it could take Apple to a $5T company. Sure it could, but he was in la-la-land when he wrote that, and when Toni Sacconaghi of all people, then jumped on board, (this was at $189 back in 2023 I think) I posted a “get out, when all the analysts you never wanted to be close to, are suddenly all-in on the same bus with you.”

AAPL promptly sunk to about $150 and then $130 again before rebounding, slowly, and took out $198 approaching WWDC 2024, before overcoming that on the “launch” of AI, and is now back to where it was in December 2024. In other words, the stock has gone essentially nowhere in almost a year while other stocks are up anywhere from 20-40% iof not more.

I’m not bashing the stock. I am bashing management, but only because they have spectacularly failed so far, to perform anything other than window dressing. If that changes, so does my thesis, but for now, after being let down so badly for three years on the trot, I’d rather sit on the side feeling comfortable than be involved in what I see as a totally rigged game which is also based on the premise the Fed will do nothing but cut rates, in an era when company earnings and capex are at insane levels, and inflation is rising, and WILL rise more YoY as comparables with 2024/2025 start to hit, as tariffs start to impact CPI and PPI YoY, inevitably. 

Unless the Fed does a “helicopter money Bernanke” stunt, but look where than led… I shudder at the idea of what another blast of “Quant Easing” would do to the Dollar and US inflation and bond yields, in this environment.

To me, that’s not in the bag yet.

To others, they don’t dare talk about the $400 number, because to do so would be to have to acknowledge the possible downside if those conditions weren’t met, and so many seem unable to think critically, and just pin their hopes on 5-year out rumours written by Mark Gurman and then parsed through Perplexity by some interns at BoA.

10-20 years ago, we extrapolated the future based on facts, and workable assumptions and a trajectory we could see.

This “future-telling” by analysts now and investors sticking to their stock in a low growth company with wildly high expectations is so far out of whack of sensible and sound financial advice its now in the realms of fairy telling: pin a number, and backfill the rationale. 

That’s not how I ever invested in AAP, and I suppose that’s what makes me different to long term lovers of the company, but without being wedded to it, ever.

A PE of over 40? Unless we see 25% growth this quarter [which we didn’t], AAPL’s fair value right now, in my eyes is about $225-230. It hasn’t delivered anything yet, except another iterative iPhone. 

Apple. Hasn’t. Shipped. Anything. Yet. Just vapour-chamber promises it hasn’t lived up to.

For context, Apple’s 10-year median forward PE is 22.5×. At over 30×, the stock is approaching 50% higher that its own decade average, on low growth and financial engineering.

Frog in boiling water is all I have really say :) 

… is how I ended my comment, on 25th October 2025

Moving onto some reflection post-euphoria after the Q4 ER on October 30th

1. The Hopium Plateau

With AAPL closing at $270 after opening at ~$271 and blasting to ~$283 in after-hours only to give it all back, the most constructive interpretation is: the market wanted a breakout but didn’t find one.

When a major print produces validation (iPhone +12% Y/Y, Services record) but no acceleration, the share price often trades sideways rather than breaks out. In other words: you paid for the story and banked the results a few months early, not the actual results.

From my vantage, this is a sell‐zone for safety (notwithstanding my Path to $400 for Q4 2027, if Apple change their ways,), not a buy zone. The risk/reward is just too skewed now. My pre-earnings line — selling at $263 — was rooted in the view that the upside case had already been built into the stock, and that the multiple was far ahead of the underlying execution.

The post-earnings price action so far seems to confirm this and AAPL will now rise and fall with the market, and rumours, making it impossible to invest in for new money.

­Q4 2025: The Numbers That Were, and Weren’t

Apple’s Q4 2025 results are in, and once again, it’s a tale of all-time highs for almost everything assuming you’re the sort who gets excited about spreadsheets.

• Revenue: $102.5 billion (+8% Y/Y)
  No confetti, but another record quarter, thanks mostly to the iPhone and Services. For those keeping score: that’s more than the GDP of some small countries.​
• EPS: $1.85 (+13% Y/Y)
  Shareholders are happy. Most of the lift still comes from relentless buybacks and the bit you can’t drop in a bath (Services).​
• Gross margin: 47.2% – record high
  Not quite the 50% that Wall Street’s wildest dreams whispered, but near enough to toast the margins at the shareholder Christmas party.​
• Services: $28.8 billion – record high
  The “Stuff You Can’t Physically Drop” division is giddy. AppleCare, Apple Financial Services (credit), have been particularly useful to add lipstick to what’s really a nondescript pig with lipstick on.​
• iPhone: $49.0 billion (+6% Y/Y)
  Still the world’s most lucrative addictive rectangle. Up, but not even the ghost of Steve Jobs could get excited about the growth rate. Nor should the market, considering without AI, this quarter was meant to be all about iPhone sales. Well, they were lame, and missed big in China.​
• Mac: $8.7 billion (+13% Y/Y)
  Macs made a comeback this quarter, if only because remote working is still a thing and they finally remembered to upgrade the processor, even if not the design or the decency to add a modem. Next year, right? Maybe?​
• iPad: $6.95 billion (flat Y/Y)
  Nothing to see here. Still the world’s bulkiest YouTube device for toddlers and grandads alike.​
• Wearables, Home & Accessories: $9.0 billion (flat Y/Y)
  And now for the punchline:
  Apple Watch sales, once the undisputed king with 56% global market share, have now dived to roughly 20%. Shipments dropped 19% last year (ouch), with competition eating Apple’s lunch faster than you can say “Huawei Watch.” Tim Cook can still claim a “record installed base,” but only in the way that London traffic keeps setting “record” travel times: nobody’s actually going anywhere new, and Apple’s losing/lost market shares in this field forever after dominating it.
• Shareholder return: >$160 billion in FY 2025, Q4 a mystery
  If you’re clutching a dividend slip, rest easy. The share buyback and dividend waterfall shows no sign of drying up.​ Dividend Queens, crack open the vintage Bollinger - it’s champagne for Lulu time!

If you’re reading this on your Apple Watch… congratulations, you’re part of an increasingly exclusive club. For everyone else: Siri now mostly exists to remind us of Apple’s glory days in the wearables arena. The iPhone and Services still pay the bills; Apple Watch, meanwhile, might want to take up jogging, for old times’ sake.

What the narrative glossed

• China weakness: Not only was the topline soft, but competitive pressure and pricing were in evidence. The bulls say “next quarter,” but that’s the accountable frontier — not a free pass.
• iPhone Air & smaller‐format misses: Reports suggest lower than expected uptake; without a meaningful incremental product cycle, the unit line is still heavily dependent on iPhone 17 Pro upgrade iterations.
• AI “coming soon”: The comments were confirmation of prior guidance, not a new strategic inflection point. Cook’s “more AI to come” is now background noise rather than catalyst. “Soon,” has been the mantra since 2023/24. In fact “soon,” for Apple is 15 years LATE.

Apple’s 15-Year AI Odyssey: From Siri’s Promise to “Apple Intelligence.” Featuring Siri, the world’s first backwards-evolving assistant now aged -15.

Apple’s AI journey reads less like a roadmap and more like a séance. For 15 years, the faithful have insisted a grand plan exists—somewhere, someday—while Siri stumbles on, lobotomised. The real mystery? Why Apple, once the master of interface revolutions, keeps mistaking silence for strategy.

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

• Margin mechanics: The margin beat is real — but much of it is driven by Services mix + AppleCare re-insurance + consumer credit/upgrade plan income. That’s financial engineering, not a hardware bonfire.
  

3. BoA’s Five-Year Fairytale & The Cult of Projection

Earlier in the week, Bank of America Corporation published a bullish five-year product roadmap for Apple: a speculative suite of AI-driven devices, services, in-vehicle ecosystems and “smart everything.” The logic: Apple will be the one to finally crack AI, and that will justify the multiple, when they crack it, and those make-believe products we literally made up may, or may not be launched. Just.. “wow,” analysts get paid to write this crap?

In my commentary to SG (29 Oct):

“Suddenly BoA does a 5-year forecast based on spurious products Gurman has speculated on, and explains all the assumptions are based on Apple succeeding in its 15-year late saga of ‘getting AI right, in the end.’”

4. The Macro Mirage – Fed, Tariffs & The Soft-Landing Illusion

Fed narrative

The market is peppered with expectations of more rate cuts, yet the logic for those cuts is shaky: inflation still at ~3%, input costs rising via tariffs and import pressures, and consumer confidence softening.

Why should the Fed cut, if the economy isn’t collapsing? And why does the market say it needs cuts? Because it needs more cheap money for CapEx to continue at these levels - the only real driver behind this insane rally.

Tariff drift & inflation tailwinds

Analysts nod that “tariffs haven’t hit yet,” ignoring that many costs haven’t shown up in the PPI/CPI headlines yet. That lag threatens execution of margin forecasts for hardware manufacturers.

Multiple disconnect

Historically, the S&P 500 trades around 18× forward earnings. Apple at ~35–40× is relying on earnings acceleration and/or multiple expansion both of which are contingent. If inflation creeps up, margin compression and multiple contraction become real. This is overvaluation, on display, rising like vapium. It’s premature, dangerous, and without any firm foundations except speculation. In other words, it could come true, but not based on facts, fundamentals, or proper analysis. Remember this cartoon? It’s how sentiment works:.

5. Déjà Vu 2024 → 2025

Last December, AAPL hit ~$260 before sliding to ~$240 in January 2025. At that time, Dan Ives and other bulls projected $330+ as if the cycle was starting. Instead, hardware softness, AI execution delays and macro weakening drove the stock back to lower levels. Then it plunged to $167.

­­6. Apple’s Cultural Lag: Execution Still Lacking

• Product differentiation: The iPhone 17 was solid, but hardly transformative. The iPhone Air has failed to shift the unit curve materially.
• Services growth: Very good — but it’s high margin, smaller addressable base vs hardware, and still a small fraction of total sales.
• AI & new categories: If you subtract rumors, nothing meaningful has shipped that moves the needle. Until Apple delivers an AI platform AND monetises it, the “what next” remains speculative.
• Management credibility: Cook & team are polished but conservative; traders increasingly demand surprise not promises. The market may tire of “next year” rationales when it can’t even ship last year’s promises.
  ­­

7. Valuation Sanity Check

• Current consensus: ~PE 40×; forward ~35×.
• Growth rate: 8% Y/Y top-line without new category; EPS growth helped by buybacks.
• Historical benchmark: 1999 tech mania peaked at 200×; this is not that, but 35–40× still sits in extreme territory for a company with low single-digit growth.
• My fair-value estimate: $225–240, unless Apple delivers measurable category expansion. Paying 40× now is betting big future success, not owning present results, with the emphasis on “betting,” not “qualitative proof” even.
  ­

8. Closing comments: When Faith Replaces Fundamentals

Analyst upgrades today revolve around hope engines rather than delivered engines. The market is banking on “more and better” from Apple, but the company hasn’t yet proven it. Meanwhile, macro tailwinds are uncertain; hardware execution is soft; the multiple is rich.

“When everyone’s screaming ‘only up from here,’ check the runway because sometimes what’s missing is not the fuel, but the engine.”

­­Bottom line:

The upside from here is limited unless there is visible category execution + margin expansion + macro tailwinds delivering all at once. For now, the $271 mark looks more like a plateau than a launching pad.

Stay selective. Be sceptical. The story is bought by a market high on performance endorphins like a marathon runner refusing to give up, but who in the end has to pause, collapse, and recover. Apple isn’t even sprinting yet, just lapped by everyone else, but assumed to have some magic dust to make good on five years of failed launches, on promises of “next year,” the flop of its “Air” model, a big China miss, and AI promised, as it was last year, for “next year.”

Tim, show me the execution, not the financial engineering and smoke and mirrors comparables with your lousy last year, and I’ll root for you again, Otherwise, good luck getting analysts excited by leaking rumour about “vapour chambers” being a sales driver for stalled Mac and iPad sales, shrinking wearables sales where they once owned the market, a China flop, the greatly anticipated Air being a flop, and the AVP being kept on life support with a new M5 chip and the promise it’s worth buying (like the original was touted) because “it’s the future,” but still no use case or justification for a $4500 price once you’ve spec’d it up.

My last word? This quarter was a pig, but the lipstick applied so expertly it really managed to turn a frog in boiling water into a prince when kissed.

How’s that for mixing metaphors? I’m off to get high smoking Faithium from my Vapour Chamber with some Gen-Z friends.

­­Note: Apple closed down $1 on the day at $270.70. Personally speaking, after the pre-earnings rally, that’s a win for investors which frankly, is not deserved by the company.

— Tommo_UK, London. Friday, 31st October 2025.

Any comments, or thoughts, from investors, as opposed to 20-year long buy-and-holders who couldn’t care less because they’re just glad to be living off the dividends from their 11,000% share price increase? Leave them below 😎

X: @tommo_uk | Linkedin: Tommo UK 

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