Apple started the New Year poorly, in spite of frothing upgrade and pom-pom talk by Dan Ives as usual, the ultimate contrarian sell-indicator.

Reality Check: AAPL 2024-2025 @ $272. An Inflation-Pacing 5% Annual Iterative Gain. Pass The Vaping Chamber, Please.

AAPL enters 2026 having delivered a 5% gain from December ’24 to December ’25: roughly flat after inflation. The narrative remains intact, the promises deferred, AI perpetually “next year,” and innovation safely iterative. Benjamin Button, but with a balance sheet. Divided Queens Rejoice!

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

I wrote this post following my observations earlier in the week, that as $272 broke, if $268 didn’t hold as key support, $262 was next.

An AAPL Post-Venezuela Vision Pro Intraday Update: $268 Must Hold

Apple’s post-Venezuela wobble isn’t about Caracas, more about gravity. AAPL has overshot on Ives’ hopium, AVP is already priced as a write-off. The only level that matters near-term is $268. Above it: noisy optimism. Below it: stops, slides, and a reminder this is a value story, not a growth myth.

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

And then I wrote in the comments that $255 was next. That comment requires zooming out to the 5-year chart, where AAPL IS NOT OVERSOLD - YET. TODAY - 8th Jan - AAPL opens at $257

From “Insanely Great” to “Good Enough”: Apple’s AI and Foldable Story Cannot Justify AAPL at $272 - For Now.

At $272, Apple is being valued on an AI revival and a foldable that exists largely in rumour and analyst imagination. This piece explains why today’s narrative misreads Apple’s past decisions, misunderstands its current structure, and overstates what can realistically arrive next.

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

Comment written 6th Jan 2026, at the close:

“Here’s a quick take on the following day, 6th January… boom! $262 touched and held for now.

Next support is $255 if it doesn’t.”

The 5-year chart shows all the clues, not the 1-year, in terms of risk and, trajectory. AAPL on the 5-year is not oversold by any means. Support and trading around AAPL changes from the daily during brief periods of of intense momo-trading such as post-October, to the yearly during uptrends but peppered by the odd white swan, and the 5-year during period of long consolidation and awaiting any consequential news, once rumours and “bull-driven euphoria” tends to have driven up the stock too far, too fast.

As happened last autumn with Apple shooting absurdly into the high $280s

If you zoom out to the 5-year chart and check the Bollinger Bands, you ‘ll see the Middled BB at $262 (bang on support) and the lower BB at around $233.

The Upper BB is at $289.

Absent near term moves, and taking possible geopolitical turnouts into account, perhaps with AAPL in a possible period of slow growth, and AAPL not seen as a particularly safe harbour right now given its already high valuation, I’d not bet on anything here.

There could easily be a swoon to $233. That would hit oversold conditions on this chart.

in fact the chart makes a strong case for it. When AAPL takes out the Middle BB with conviction (currently $262) it usually heads for the lower BB before finding strong support.

If momo money comes out of AAPL and Dan Ives frothing at the mouth doesn’t get them back, and there’s a geopolitical wobble with more global impact than Venezuela, $233 or $225 could be the equivalent in 2025 of the $167 swoon in April.

AAPL ≠ a good tradable bet here.

So absent a reason for new money to pour in amidst rising tension and the possibility of another fall-out with China (you can say bye bye to China iPhone sales growth if China cuts Apple out of the $250 subsidy it offers buyers) until there’s genuinely new “stuff” on the table from Apple.

NOTE: for me, that doesn’t include a niche and enormously expensive “iPhone Phablet Pholdable Phone Pro Max iFold” …

… I still don’t see the near-term bull case for AAPL beyond a steady and slow grower.

Local basketball on the AVP is barely scratching the surface on a product now three years old and destined for the scrapheap the moment Apple can cut ⅔ of the price and deliver and almost equal experience but the use case for mass market adoption of goggles to wear around the house is questionable and unproven.

In fact so far, the case has been totally disproven by not just Apple, but the entire VR goggles segment which can’t get a grip. Unless Cook & Co can finally show there’s a genuine mass market use case for the AVP, it’s going to be a resource sapping distraction and an embarrassing one, given how much churn the project has caused internally to-date involving entries departments re-structuring and re-organising in the last 18 months.

- Apple topped 2024 at $260. 

- It marginally beat inflation by topping out 2025 at $272.

- Going into 2026 it’s at $262 right now after almost recovering $280.

This morning pre-market on 8th January 2026, it’s at $257, within $2 of my call of $255 - key support to not trigger more sell-stops and head towards crucial support of $233

The drivers cited for each of these years which have so far failed to materialise?

• AI,
• Siri,
• mass-market AVP/AR Glasses,
• better spec’s MacBooks with more than just a new M-series CPU - like, please, a modem at the very least, and a better screen for the Air.
• I’m not including the “phabulous pholdable - I don’t believe it will be a just success, nor sell in sufficient numbers to move the needle anyway.

WARNING: SKIP THIS SECTION AND JUMP TO THE “AFTERS” IF YOU DON’T WANT A REMINDER OF HOW MY PAST COMMENTARY IS USUALLY PRETTY ACCURATE ON FUTURE OUTCOMES

Without more than iterative updates, Dan Ives $360 target will drift into 2027. Dan hasn’t explained just how this might happen, he’s just wearing a bullish hat spouting superlatives. I wrote the gameplan for it. Can Apple follow it?

AAPL Q3 Preview: $160, Mediocrity, or $400? The Uncomfortable Truths Wall Street Won’t Model.

A confession: I don’t care how many iPhones Apple claims are “installed.” Nor “dormant users,” or the parade of stats rolled out every ER call to assure us the Apple ecosystem is, in some metaphysical sense, expanding. The proof is in the earnings growth and that’s all the Street really cares about.

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

Back in a series of articles from June 2025 to Octiber, explained what strategy Apple should pursue to achieve $400 by Q4 2027.

Perplexity & Apple Up In A Tree. K-I-S-S-I-N-G to $400. Part 3 – Readers Respond and A Conclusion

In Part 3, we dive into reader reactions—from DropBox déjà vu to Apple’s ticking clock—and close with a no-bullshit call to arms. This isn’t about demos or GPU counts. It’s about shipping something useful now. Because Perplexity isn’t just another LLM. It’s the one that already works.

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

And…

Apple, F1, and Perplexity: “Engineering Fantasy.” With Tariffs On The Horizon, What Tyre Strategy Does AAPL Need for $400?

Behind Apple’s cinematic Formula One fantasy lies a more urgent narrative: markets pricing perfection, investors smoking hopium, and a company at a strategic crossroads. But what if the road to $400 isn’t paved with hype—but with the precise geometry of Apple finally showing its hand and delivering?

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

Along with crucially, why Apple needs to change its culture, not just rent Google’s brains in the form of adopting Gemini in the sly to run Siri, for the company to succeed:

From FAANG to MANGO: Apple’s Chance to Think Different Again: Its Next Big Move to $400 Isn’t based on Hardware, But Culture.

Apple’s ATH of $263 isn’t just a milestone but an epiphany. After a decade of iteration, the company’s next act won’t be defined by chips or devices, but the culture it chooses to rebuild. FAANG was about products; MANGO? Cognition. Can Apple still “Think Different,” and fix its stifling culture?

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

And finally, why John Ternus is not the right guy - nice though he is - to achieve the above transformation.

Apple’s Next Big Risk Isn’t AVP – It’s Making John Ternus CEO. Nice Guy, Wrong Job.

Apple seems ready to replace Tim Cook with John Ternus. But with misses in mixed reality, AI, smart home, autonomy and the iPhone Air, he’s the wrong leader for a company that’s arguably lost an edge. Apple needs fresh vision, not a hardware continuity candidate doubling down on 5 years of misfires.

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

AFTERS - the Summary Comment

So far, I’m not seeing any moves in the right direction other than vague indications of a consolidation of power and better internal management within Apple, out of necessity but vision though, and the sad adoption of Google’s Gemini and their chief AI expert to replace the last chief AI expert from Google who screwed it all up for Apple in 2018 (Giannandrea).

We’re still waiting for Apple to #FREESIRI 15 years after lobotomising it, and catching up on a decade of squandering a lead in AI and uses which would have made Steve Jobs vision of the iPod and iTunes combo the pace-setter for two decades.

If you haven’t read the sad squandering of the opportunity Siri offered before its future was ruthlessly axed when Scott Forstall was booted out and Craig Federighi put in charge of pretty much everything, have a read here:

Apple’s 15-Year AI Odyssey: From Siri’s Promise to “Apple Intelligence.” Featuring Siri, the world’s first backwards-evolving assistant now aged -15.

Apple’s AI journey reads less like a roadmap and more like a séance. For 15 years, the faithful have insisted a grand plan exists—somewhere, someday—while Siri stumbles on, lobotomised. The real mystery? Why Apple, once the master of interface revolutions, keeps mistaking silence for strategy.

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

But let’s be optimistic, IMO they’ve until WWDC 2026 to correct this, if the stock stays where it is.

Meanwhile, it’s richly priced for zero progress except for what I can see is massive internally restructuring and a renewed and simplified product road map. 

Will a grey Tim Cook manage to pull off a Brad Pitt style “F1: The Movie” stunt and make his final lap the winning one, or just exit spinning into the pit lane? 

If only they would live-stream the C-Suite at Cupertino to the AVP, even I’d buy one!

Now remember, bugger excuses. You‘re investors not apologists.

• Take off your rosy coloured AVPs - gen 3 in 202 might deliver the goods but until then it is the future, not an earnings feature.
• Look at the 5-year chart, I posted above, and see what even a 5-year old could identify as a pattern.

If only they would live-stream the C-Suite at Cupertino to the AVP, even I’d buy one! 🍿

And for any auties on there (if you know, you know,) I’m sure you see the same unavoidable pattern I have been for months now.

Apple, prove me wrong. After 5 years of making a balls-up, much to my disappointment but in line with my predictions, sadly. I used to be the biggest AAPL bull. No longer.

Tim, time to adopt the persona of the wholly-ficitional Brad Pitt character from your cringe-movie, F1: The Movie, and win by breaking all the rules, rather than breaking the car in a tail spin into the tyre wall, as your lasting legacy to Apple.

Otherwise, you’ll be squandering your tenure of 16 years as CEO since Jobs departed, but leaving on a bum note, and Apple’s jewel in the crown, Siri, being run by Google. That would be sad.

So, stop staring at the 1-year cliff edge, zoom out, and notice this isn’t capitulation yet.

If there’s going to be capitulation then “we’re not there yet.” That doesn’t make it inevitable but there’s a familiar trajectory which doesn’t bear ignoring considering the price action in AAPL we’re familiar with from the past; the current velocity and momentum is more unprecedented than the norm after all.

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PS - Dan Ives now has his own bloody ETF!

So this guy gets to talk up his favourite stocks all over the media, and literally talk up his book, and see his ETF boom as a result. Does anyone else think this is the market being captured by hot air, instead of hot air coming off the market? This, in my view, should not be allowed.

If he’s running an ETF, he should not be allowed to public comment as a third party analysts on his own interests and stocks - let alone his own ETF. This is manipulation 101. SEC? MIA. QED.

Tommo_UK, London 8th January 2026

© 2026 TOMMO.FYI

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