fyi. on Geopolitics Trump AAPL
I described the bond panic weeks ahead of it happening, while others on the day expressed “shock and awe” all over CNBC and Bloomberg at the “unpredictability of it all,” a “flash of fear.” I flagged it as a genuine signal of systemic unease and global liquidity disruption.
Recent Observations in the rear view mirror:
March 2025
• AAPL $260: Remember the crazy ones
Called the sell zone. Exited ALL U.S. assets before the Trump Tariff Tantrum
Long before it stalled. While everyone else was still cheering for all-time highs, I flagged the exhaustion, warned of managerial drift, and noted the disturbing absence of product traction. Result? It fell 90 points.
April 2025
• April 2nd: Get out warning—crazies are running the asylum
I described the bond panic weeks ahead of it happening, while others on the day expressed “shock and awe” all over CNBC and Bloomberg at the “unpredictability of it all,” a “flash of fear.” I flagged it as a genuine signal of systemic unease and global liquidity disruption. Treasury tremors were predictable. Not because of clairvoyance—but because of pattern, structure, and an ability to smell political desperation a mile off. Trump had to step in at the last minute to prevent and overnight bond vigilante raid which would have destroyed the Dollar and sent the US economy over a cliff within 24-48 hours.
• Target: predicting the crash to $150–170.
Nailed it. Weeks before the selloff hit its April lows around $169. This wasn’t luck. It was analysis, discipline, and memory longer than the average news cycle. Yet still AAPL zealots, as opposed to AAPL enthusiasts, ranted about nefarious traders.
• Trump’s tariff boomerang: Predicted.
The moment “Tariff Theatre” returned to the political stage, I warned it would be more than noise—it would become embedded policy, with real impact on US multinationals. Result? Panic interventions, market whiplash, and Apple suddenly looking exposed.
• Apple’s AI delay, Vision Pro collapse, and exec churn?
All forecast. While others still believed “just wait until WWDC,” I was writing about the broken internal OS architecture, Siri’s irrelevance, the failings of spatial computing as launched, and the migration of talent out of the company’s innovation core.
2027?
And yet—I’m still enthusiastic about Apple. Just not unconditionally. I can still see a $400 stock by FY2027 but only with flawless execution, which the company hasn’t managed since about 2016, let alone 2020 - the lost half decade.
This is tommo.fyi
not a safe space, but a clear space.
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