Reality Check: AAPL 2024-2025 @ $272. An Inflation-Pacing 5% Annual Iterative Gain. Pass The Vaping Chamber, Please.

AAPL enters 2026 having delivered a 5% gain from December ’24 to December ’25: roughly flat after inflation. The narrative remains intact, the promises deferred, AI perpetually “next year,” and innovation safely iterative. Benjamin Button, but with a balance sheet. Divided Queens Rejoice!

Tommo_UK

Tommo_UK

— 3 min read
Reality Check: AAPL 2024-2025 @ $272. An Inflation-Pacing 5% Annual Iterative Gain. Pass The Vaping Chamber, Please.
AAPL’s 5% ‘gain’: analysts and forum traders vaping hopium while Cook’s Apple wallows on the ”Plateau” barely above last years’s ATH. Meanwhile Apple rents Google for brains.

AAPL December ’24: $260
AAPL December ’25: $272

A 5% rise. Inflation-adjusted, flat, in a range from $167 to $288 for 2025.

As written about here:

AAPL S/R @ ~$272 Today, Where Hope Goes To Die Again, While China Props Up the CNBC Narrative.
AAPL’s five-day chart is a stumble down a staircase with no handrail. $272 has become the market’s favourite rejection zone where every bounce goes to die. Meanwhile CNBC cheers China’s ‘33% surge,’ quietly omitting that Beijing’s subsidies are doing most of the lifting.
TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

CNBC tries to substitute for Santa Claus rally. Fails to notice get-out clause: “Not this year.”

… and then again here:

From “Insanely Great” to “Good Enough”: Apple’s AI and Foldable Story Cannot Justify AAPL at $272 - For Now.
At $272, Apple is being valued on an AI revival and a foldable that exists largely in rumour and analyst imagination. This piece explains why today’s narrative misreads Apple’s past decisions, misunderstands its current structure, and overstates what can realistically arrive next.
TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

Apple “fold your gains” expectations” if you expect a “Phat Pholdable” to be a huge revenue driver. Remember the iPhone Air? Folded. iPhone Fold? Likely not a needle-mover, at least for gen1 or gen2.

But, hark the angels sing, because it is Christmas and the season to be jolly.

Heard during Christmas carols being sung in Cupertino:

1. Mumble-mumble “enigmatic narrative” intact.
2. AI “sometime.” Beginning 2026. Maturing 2027. Promise.
3. “We’re getting there.”
4. “Foldable.”
5. “We’re iterating our way to the future, safely, one step at a time.”
6. Gemini - whoops, never use that word, we mean a “Google almost-AGI” rented brain will soon bring Siri to life. Again. Safely.


More answering machine (2025) than Knowledge Navigator (1987) though.

Congratulations, Apple.

You’re the Benjamin Button of the tech world. There’s an old song, look it up (don’t ask Siri, better ask Gemini) - ”I’m walking backwards for Christmas, Across The Irish Sea.”

Three suggestions for Think Different, since it’s now an anachronism at Cook’s Apple:

“Progress, carefully reversed.”


“Innovation, iteratively implemented.”


Or, most on-brand of all an in homage to a once inspiring “insanely great” mantra,

“Insanely careful.”

RIP “Can’t innovate my ass.”
Apple wouldn’t know its Schiller from its elbow anymore.

So, that was the year, that is. There you go. A year went by. Nothing structurally changed. See you next cycle. Something new, but old, reborn. Run by Google. Rented by Apple. Sold as safe.

✨See you in 2026! ✨

HAPPY NEW YEAR - AND MAY APPLE THRIVE, AND STAY ALIVE, IN SPITE OF HAVING TO RENT GEMINI FOR BRAINS AND IMPORT AI EXPERTISE FROM GOOGLE TO DO “INSANELY ITERATIVE” STUFF.

/EOM

Tommo_UK, London 26th December 2025 & 31st December

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