Intraday Update: AAPL at $292. Consider Hedging AAPL With A VIX Position. Complacency Is High. The Market On “Hopium.”

Short and sweet: Don’t assume the only way is up. And if it is, you’ve lost little except some insurance premium.

Remember the tail whiplash from the closure of the Straits of Hormuz is only going to arrive towards the end of May, when tankers still at sea dock and offload in the West, and no more oil, petroleum or fertiliser arrives. That’s when the global economy could take a massive hit, and betting on volatility now might pay off handsomely.

Is this one of those moments?

• Markets at all time highs,
• Intel up 200% just year-to-date while
• AAPL is up barely 15% in 18 months since its previous ATH at $260 in December 2024.

Time toTake a VIX position?

It’s sunk to 18 again after peaking at 30 just a few weeks ago. AAPL is at nosebleed levels, complacency is high, and the Straits of Hormuz are still seeing America and Iran firing missiles at one another.

Hormuz is America’s Suez-AAPL is not immune, #fakecesefire

Hormuz is not just a Middle East story. It is a test. Can American force still turn military action into durable order at a vital chokepoint, and whether markets, allies and consumers still believe it. If it cannot, the fallout will not stop at oil, tankers or diplomats. And Apple will feel it too.

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

Trump just blew hot air at Iran’s latest deal and disposed of it.

How much of this - together with Iran firing missiles at US destroyers and the US seizing Iranian tankers - can the Department for War‘s Pistol Pete take before finally admitting there is no ceasefire, and the Straits remain closed and causing a massive pressure point for the global economy? It used to be said “you break it, you fix it,” but that doesn’t seem to be the view of this US administration which is more “we broke it, you fix it,” to the rest of the world as if the US lives in splendid isolation.

VIX protection against volatility might be the most sensible thing you could buy here.

in case things go tits-up in the Middle East or Trump does something stupid. Here’s what I wrote about AAPL and the VIX last year, which on a leap in the VIX from 16 to 30 and AAPL tumbling from $283 to $243, made for a pretty good paired trade and a profitable one.

AAPL and the VIX: Siamese Twins in a Market That Forgot Risk Exists. Hedge, Don’t Edge Yourself

NVDA’s print has traders chasing a Santa rally while the VIX quietly sits in the low 20s, pretending risk is optional. AAPL’s climb-and-collapse should be a warning: blow-offs don’t end in celebration. If protection was a gift at 14, it’s still mispriced now.

TOMMO.FYITommo_UK

$20 up or down from here is par for the course. 

There is no investable information out there now, so sit tight and enjoy the ride - but as a caveat “this is not investment advice and if your options straddles twist your nether regions into bankruptcy, don‘t blame me.”

The VIX can be your friend when markets forget risk exists, and a sudden global wobble could make volatility protection pay off handsomely. You never know if this is 1999 all over again, until the clock ticks and the hands move. I know I wouldn’t want to be on the wrong side of that move.

I’ve suggested this trade 4 times since March 2025, and every time, it’s yielded a 140-200% profit (or leveraged about 20:1 using options or spread betting in 20x that return). It would have made you rich in April 2025, and a healthy profit when AAPL dived but the VIX exploded 15-20 points several times between June 2025 and April 2026.

If you want to protect your Apple harvest, taking out protection against frost bite, with the VIX under 18, might not be a bad idea to pair with your AAPL position.

Tommo_UK, London, Monday, 11th May 2026, Intraday update at 10:30 AM ET

© 2026 Tommo_UK / tommo.fyi

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